I hope everyone has stuck to their New Year's resolutions for our first month of 2026! I'm happy to report that I'm three health/lifestyle apps deep into resetting myself to reach my goals. Let's hope I can stick to the routine and habit forming regiment I'm putting myself through... 😅
Simon and I are already getting up into new places in the mountains we haven't explored yet, and I'm looking forward to what the year brings for our Montana adventures! I also wanted to share that my new sourdough starter, Doughlly Parton, is quite the diva and making some fantastic baked goodies for my family and friends. If you want to try your hand at a basic sourdough bread loaf, I have a fail-proof recipe and some great starter to share with you!
I've had some great feedback on these monthly newsletters, specifically on how I mention the snowy winter when in fact we've barely gotten any snow at all. Well, I hear you Ross Tatarka – and brother, I'm here to apologize for my hopeful wishing! In all seriousness, I think all Southwest Montanans are on the same page when it comes to our lack of snow this winter. Anyone want to arrange a community-wide snow dance??
Turning to the business side of this newsletter, I'd like to take a deep dive into last year's real estate market. Now that the final numbers are in, we can officially close the book on 2025. And what a telling year it was! If I had to summarize the 2025 real estate market in one word, it would be "Resilience."
While 2025 brought welcome growth compared to the previous year, it’s important to keep the big picture in perspective. According to recent data from the National Association of REALTORS®, sales in Gallatin County remain 31% below pre-pandemic December norms. This tells us that while we are definitely recovering, we haven't fully returned to the "old normal" just yet. However, the data we do have shows a massive shift in who is buying and clear signals that 2026 is poised for even more growth.
Here is the deep dive into what happened in the Gallatin Valley and Broadwater County last year—and the data that busts some of the biggest myths about our market.
Southwest Montana Real Estate Market Insights
Gallatin Valley: Volume is Up, Panic is Down
The story in the Gallatin Valley was one of stability. After years of double-digit price hikes, 2025 flattened out, which gave buyers the confidence to come back to the table.
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Median Sales Price: $785,000 (Down just 0.6% from $790,000 in 2024)
The Takeaway: Prices held virtually steady. This stability is healthy—it shows the market floor is solid, but the ceiling isn't rising uncontrollably.
- Closed Sales: 1,030 Homes (Up 6.3% from 969 in 2024)
The Takeaway: This is the most important stat of the year. We saw a 6.3% jump in people buying homes compared to 2024. While we are still chasing those pre-pandemic highs, the arrow is finally pointing up again. Demand is very much alive.
- Median Days on Market: 33 Days (Up 50% from 22 in 2024)
The Takeaway: This is where the lifestyle change happened. Even though more homes sold, they took longer to do it. The "24-hour bidding war" is gone. Buyers in 2025 took their time, did their inspections, and negotiated.
Gallatin Valley
Broadwater County
Broadwater County: A Window of Opportunity
Just down the road in Townsend and Broadwater County, the market saw a genuine correction, creating arguably the best buying opportunity we’ve seen in years.
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Median Sales Price: $565,000 (Down 5.8% from $600,000 in 2024)
The Takeaway: While Gallatin stayed flat, Broadwater prices adjusted downward. For buyers priced out of Bozeman, Townsend is becoming an increasingly attractive financial option.
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Closed Sales: 77 Homes (Down 3.8% from 80 in 2024)
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Median Days on Market: 47 Days (Up 34.3% from 35 in 2024)
The Takeaway: Patience is the name of the game here. Homes are sitting for nearly seven weeks on average. For sellers, this means pricing accurately is non-negotiable. For buyers, it means you have significant leverage to negotiate price and repairs.
Myth Busting: Who is Actually Buying?
You hear it at every coffee shop: "It's all out-of-state investors buying up Montana." The 2025 data proves that is false.
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Locals are Leading: In 2025, 75.13% of residential sales went to Montana buyers. The vast majority of people buying homes here already live here. Now, anyone can question how many of those Montanans are originally from another state and have only lived here for a year before buying/selling again. Regardless of the scenarios, Montanans are buying Montana!
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Homes, Not Hotels: At ERA Landmark, 64% of our transactions were for owner-occupied homes, with only 9% going to second-home buyers and 24% to investors.
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Migration is Balanced: According to the U-Haul Growth Index, Montana ranked #12 in the nation for growth (up from #24). However, the split was remarkably even: 50.7% in-migration vs. 49.3% out-migration. We are swapping residents, not just adding them.
The Outlook for 2026: Why I Am Optimistic
Looking ahead, several factors suggest 2026 could be a breakout year for buyers.
1. The "Magic Number" for Rates: Projections indicate interest rates could settle near 6% in 2026. While not the 3% of the past, this shift is powerful. It is estimated that in Gallatin County alone, this rate drop would:
- Reduce the necessary household income to buy a home by $43,000.
- Qualify 3,320 more households in our area to buy.
- Boost overall sales by an estimated 330+ transactions.
2. The "Champ" Effect at MSU: Montana State University just hit a record enrollment of 17,165 students for the Fall 2025 semester, setting records for retention and graduation. With the Bobcats fresh off a National Championship (Go Cats!), the university's visibility is at an all-time high.
Why this matters: A growing university drives housing demand—not just for students, but for faculty, staff, and the economy that supports them. Rumors of a stadium expansion only add to the excitement and long-term stability of the Bozeman market. There's a tale as old as time when it comes to past students staying in Bozeman and bringing their out-of-state family with them. Who could blame them?!
The bottom line, 2025 was the year the market took a deep breath and stabilized. 2026 is shaping up to be the year it gets moving again.
Data provided by Big Sky Country MLS for a Year-to-date analysis for all data sets; data updated 1/20/2026. Data numbers for the Gallatin Valley reflect single-family residential for Bozeman City (area 1), Greater Bozeman (area 2), Belgrade (area 3), and Manhattan/Three Forks (area 4). Data numbers for Broadwater County includes all areas within the county. If you want more detailed information about specific areas and listing types, contact Becca for more details.
Whether you are one of the 3,320 households about to re-enter the market or a seller looking to capitalize on the MSU energy, you need a strategy. Contact me today, and let's build your 2026 real estate plan!
Becca's Monthly Recommendations
Rebecca Quackenbush
REALTOR®,
Senior Real Estate Specialist,
Distinctive Properties
406.580.2307
rebecca@eralandmark.com
1805 W Dickerson St, Ste 1
Bozeman, MT 59715
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